lucky: The chances of Barkley turning into a franchise back

The chances of Barkley turning into a franchise back


26 Apr 2018 at 11:30pm
Barkley is regarded as a truly stratospheric running back prospect and as close to a can't-miss proposition as you'll see in the draft. He has no obvious weak points or off-field concerns. He has been called the best running back prospect since Peterson. But as Scott Kacsmar pointed out, that has been true of Elliott, Fournette, Todd Gurley and Trent Richardson. Richardson was seen as a similarly safe pick with no significant flaws when he was drafted in 2012, but he turned out to be a sub-replacement NFL back.

We're often too confident about the top running www.authenticlosangelesangelsshop.com/Brandon-Phillips-Jersey /a> back prospect in a given draft class turning into the best halfback from his class at the professional level. By my count, looking at the past 20 drafts, the first running back drafted has turned into the best runner from that class only seven times. That's similar to rates at other positions. The first quarterback taken in each draft over the past 20 years has turned into its best passer five times. With edge rushers, it's six times in 20 years.

We still don't know about recent drafts, and it's a little unfair to compare a back taken in the top three picks to someone such as Bishop Sankey, who fell to the 54th pick of the 2014 draft before being the first back off the board. Let's take a look at the truly world-class running back prospects to try to find similar players to Barkley. It's unlikely that Barkley will fall past the Broncos at No. 5, given that the Giants, Browns and Broncos could all theoretically draft a running back or trade their pick to a team interested in Barkley. How often do top-five backs turn into superstars?

There have been 13 backs drafted in the top five in the past 20 years. Six of them -- Richardson, Cedric Benson, Bush, Curtis Enis, Darren McFadden and Cadillac Williams -- failed to make a Pro Bowl before their NFL careers ended. They have to be considered disappointments, though it's probably unfair to lump Bush into that mix.

Three backs made it to one Pro Bowl: Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis and Ricky Williams. Likewise, Brown probably doesn't belong in this group, given that he finished his career with 5,391 rushing yards, and Lewis and Paul Thompson Authentic Jersey Williams each topped 10,000 over the course of their careers. It's also too early to judge Elliott and Fournette.

There are only two backs from this group who made it to multiple Pro Bowls and have Hall of Fame credentials. LaDainian Tomlinson is enshrined in Canton, and Edgerrin James is a two-time finalist and has a reasonable shot of making it one day. Of these 13 backs, I would say that four teams -- the Chargers (with Tomlinson), Colts (James), Ravens (Lewis) and Saints (Bush) -- ended up with a franchise back, while New Orleans was at least able to turn its disastrous trade for Williams into two first-round picks after three seasons, though one of them was conditional.

Let's say five teams found franchise running backs. That's not enough of a successful rate to trust that Barkley is a lock to turn into a perennial superstar. If we look back 10 more years, we'll find two more Hall of Famers (Marshall Faulk and Barry Sanders) and two total washouts (Ki-Jana Carter and Blair Thomas) alongside Garrison Hearst, who falls somewhere in between.

Do the same analysis for quarterbacks, and you'll get roughly similar results. Of the 27 passers drafted in the top five since 1998, three (Philip Rivers and the Manning brothers) are likely to make the Hall of Fame. It's still too www.chargersofficialfootballshop.com/Nike-Dexter-Mccoil-Jersey.html /a> early to judge a handful of those quarterbacks, but at least half of those teams came away with a guy they considered their franchise passer past their rookie deal.

If the chances of a highly drafted running back and a quarterback turning into a superstar are roughly similar, and it appears that they are, you simply can't justify taking the running back. There's too much upside being left on the table by not drafting a passer, given how much a good signal-caller makes relative to the cost of the second overall pick. The only exception would be if ...Given that Gettleman has suggested that he expects Eli to be the quarterback in 2018, it seems as if the Giants are at least operating under the assumption that their longtime starter isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

So let's ask that question: How much longer should the Giants expect Manning to play? The 37-year-old did complete another healthy season. But with his top two receivers missing most of the year because of injury and his offensive line more of a Matt Slauson Youth jersey theoretical construct than actual protection, his numbers weren't pretty. Jaromir Jagr Authentic Jersey Manning averaged just 6.1 yards per pass, the lowest mark he has posted since his rookie season, while his passer rating and QBR fell for the third consecutive season.

By the era-adjusted net www.authenticwildstore.com/devan-dubnyk-jersey_c-432.html /a> yards per attempt (NY/A+) statistic, Manning's mark of 83 was well below the league average of 100. When you compare him to the 29 other quarterbacks who started 12 games or more during their age-36 seasons, that 83 NY/A+ figure ranks ... 30th out of 30. Granted, it's a list that includes 11 Hall of Famers and a handful of no-doubters who will be in once they're eligible, but last is last.

Excluding active players, the retired quarterbacks started an average of 18.7 games over the rest of their career. The 26 passers combined to produce a total of just 13 above-average full seasons as starters (12-plus starts with a NY/A+ over 100) after turning 37. Tom Brady and Drew Brees have outdone those marks, and it's fair to wonder whether quarterbacks are likely to last longer now than they would have 30 years ago, but the evidence suggests that Eli doesn't have much time left as a viable starter. cheap jerseys cheap nfl jerseys wholesale nfl jerseys wholesale nfl jerseys wholesale jerseys cheap jerseys free shipping

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