fet895: 侯友宜連任想大勝很困難?台媒:要先說服深藍群體

侯友宜連任想大勝很困難?台媒:要先說服深藍群體


23 Dec 2021 at 10:43pm
新北市“公投”以“三好一壞”收場,基層認為,“公投”投票率僅4成,難以與7成投票率的縣市首長選舉相比,充其量只算是藍綠基本盤回歸,年輕人與中間選民不出來投票,藍綠實際是雙輸。不過基層也指出,新北市長侯友宜想走藍綠外的第三條路線,恐先失深藍信任,2022連任問題不大,但大贏30萬票風光難再,他若想成為2024藍營共主,除中間選民,說服深藍認同新路線,也是當務之急。





據台灣《中國時報》報導,民進黨將這次“公投”議題訴諸藍綠對決,在綠營執政優勢下,“府院”黨傾全力動員,全台“公投”選舉雖是四項不同意勝出,不過投票率卻不如預期,尤其侯友宜在毫無動員情形下,新北市還能拿下三好一壞成績,連侯陣營人士都相當“意外”。

實際分析投票情形,以最具爭議的核四“公投”議題,新北市29行政區中,新店、中和與永和被視作藍營鐵票區,同意票均大幅領先不同意票,新店區同意方更是大勝2萬7000餘票,展現藍粉忠誠度。

另外,三重、新莊與蘆洲地區向來被視作綠營票倉,在核四“公投”議題上,則是不同意票大幅領先同意票,其中三重不同意方大勝2萬8000票。顯示“公投”最後回歸藍綠基本盤,新北藍、綠結構並未鬆動。地方人士認為,藍綠透過動員催票,讓各自基本盤更穩固,但投票率低,也代表年輕一代對政黨惡鬥厭惡加深,寧願待在家追劇,“反正投了執政黨也不會照做”。

地方人士分析,侯友宜這次“公投”以靜制動,希望走出藍綠以外的第三條路線,有如當年陳水扁的“新中間路線”,一開始確實成功,但在藍綠夾攻下,陳最後還是要回歸綠營基本盤取暖。

侯友宜刻意與藍營保持距離,任何事都低調冷處理強調“努力做事”,已先失去死忠藍營支持者,選舉除了高施政滿意度,若缺乏熱情,恐怕難催出高票,當年朱立倫競選連任主打&ldquooer”強調會做事,卻險些翻船輸給打悲情路線的“水牛伯”游錫堃。

“難道要靠中間選民?”地方人士認為,侯友宜刻意傾向中間的路線,難保不會催出深藍“賭爛票”,侯想維持上一次選舉大勝近30萬票,恐怕困難重重,2022選得不夠好,2024恐也會失去發言權,想成為藍營共主困難重重日本藤素日本騰素必利勁威而鋼日本藤素真假日本藤素官網藤素藥局日本藤素價格持久液JAPANTENGSU萬力可春藥

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